How much do grades typically improve between mocks and GCSEs?

[winterrabbit]

DS1 took his mocks before Christmas. Did very little revision so we're not expecting anything great but hoping to avoid a disaster as well. He got his results in Physics, Chemistry and Biology today and got 4, 5, 5 which I am a bit disappointed about as he got all 5s in the same subjects in the last assessments. No other results yet. Any idea what his predicted grades will be based on those and how much kids typically go up between mocks and GCSEs?

In my experience as an ex teacher with 25 years experience 1 grade is typical provides the DC actively works to revise, attends revision sessions etc. They won't improve if they don't do more than They are doing now. I'd suggest a revision timetable and for DC to do about 40 mins at a time in evening then spend 10 mins going back through the same material the following morning to set it in their mind. If it's Saturday or Sunday maybe they could do 2 X 40 mins in different subjects. Get them to have a revision list for each subject and tick off as they go so they can see their progress.

Yes I agree, assuming he is capable of better grades than these, they will only improve if he really focuses on the work now. He has four months and that's time to make a difference but he needs to do it.

I guess couple of grades up is possible if he is able and really did v little work, bit less likely tbh.

Predicted grades for GCSE don't matter, especially not at this stage. Sixth form or college will just look at his actual grades in August.

Clary. don't they get their offers for sixth form based on their predicted grades?

DD put absolutely 0 effort into her mocks and came out with 7776654433

Thankfully it was the shock she needed! In the real exams she came out with 8777766554

If your DC put zero effort in, and I guess they're 15, with all 'ex-teacher's' advice, you're on a hiding to nothing. Your influence over '15' isn't huge.

One of two things will happen: they'll get a hell of a shock or they still won't care.

Maturity is a beast.

Research options. Tech. Apprenticeships. Whatever BTECs are called now.

But, don't waste everyone's time with low grade GCSEs on meaningless A levels.

Usually a grade difference. Occasionally you see a miracle

Fordian, it's not wasting anyone's time than his own. I don't think his results are so bad as to think he won't be able to do A-levels. Lots of kids don't knuckle down until a bit later. Your job as a parent is to do your best to make sure they do. It may fail but you need to try.

Should also say that one of those 3s was in maths! The threat of not being able to get back into school for sixth form really scared her. Managed to bump it up by 2 grades to a 5 in the real thing with a really good tutor. For someone who rarely managed more than a 4 in maths (definitely takes after me, much more English minded) it was an achievement

My DD went up a grade in all but one which went down 2 grades but she'd stop trying in that subject because she had absolutely no interest in it. Still got all 5s to 9s

Not ime. Sixth forms, apart from the very competitive ones, want bums on seats. They may (should) have grade requirements (6 or above in chosen subjects IMO) but that will be actual grades. He should have applied already and you can hold multiple offers

In this household, 1 grade improvement if they don't put any effort in and just plod through the last school lessons. I am still annoyed with DS.

On average a grade improvement

However that average hides a lot of variability.

I usually taught the grade 1/2/3 class and they would usually improve by about half a grade.

The kids who were motivated and whose parents got tutors would improve more than a grade.

At the upper level 7/8/9 it's much more about what comes up on the exam and in particular the boundary between 8 and 9 it very easy to move across in both directions.

Kids getting grade 3 or 4in the mocks are usually targeted by the school and get lots of small group intervention and smaller classes and extra homework clubs etc. the school really does try very hard to drag them over the line.

In my school predicted grades were set by the formula

Mock grade plus two thirds of a grade and then if you were close enough to the boundary for the next grade that's what you'd get.

So say they got 43 marks in the mock and the grade boundaries were 40 - 4, 50 - 5 and 60 - 6

A grade us 10 marks, two thirds of a grade us 7 marks (generous)

So 43 plus 7 gives 50 predicted if a 5.

My sons History GCSE was his biggest nice shock- went from a 2 on the mock to a 6!!! A jump of 4 grades! He actually thought he had someone else's results as he didn't believe the history mark! He just knuckled down revising as wasn't happy with his 2 and got that result! I know this doesn't happen in all subjects and for all pupils.

Dc's grades all fell by one mark from mocks to actual GCSEs. I've heard this happen a lot, and they worked very hard too. Grades can go down.

Realistically, if he got 4,5,5 in the sciences, he shouldn't be contemplating doing sciences at A level. They're far too low, and even if he does a lot of revision and turns them into 6s or maybe the odd 7, it's still too low and far below A level standard. A level sciences are a massive step up from GCSE and you really should be getting 8 or 9 at GCSE to take that subject at A level. I remember seeing some tables showing a GCSE 9 equated to A level grade A, 8 = B, 7=C, and Unis will typically only offer places on A level grades A and B, especially for STEM degrees, so a D or below at A level will really limit Uni choices.

It depends on how much he plans on revising for the real exams. DS thinks it's a waste of time doing too much revision for mocks but revised a lot for the real GCSEs because he wanted to get back in his sixth form so he revised from Easter till the exams for most subjects.

He ended going up 2 grades in a few subjects and 1 in others. He had to get a 6/7 in one English subject so he picked the one he liked most and went to school support and watched YouTube videos and got an 8. He didn't do much in the other and got a 6.

He's using the same tactics for A-levels so didn't bother revising much for assessments till the end of 1st year exams but needed high predicted grades for his Uni course so worked really hard and did well. It's a bit of a stressful approach for us as parents but seems to work for him.... so far!

DD revised hard and often. Got great results in mocks and exactly the same in the real gcses, with the exception of one subject when she dropped a grade.

Ok, so emailed DS's physics teacher (he got a 4 in the Mock) and the teacher strongly suggests that he does the foundation paper not the higher paper in that subject which is disappointing. He says that the risk of doing the higher paper is that if it goes badly DS could end up with a U. Is this right? What is the highest grade you can get on the foundation paper?

Grade 5

Not sure I am seeing the reasoning for making him do foundation. If he does badly on he foundation paper and end up with a 3 or lower that's still a fail so not sure it's much worse/different to a U on the higher paper. Is 4 the lowest you can get on the higher paper before it goes to U? If he's predicted a 4 or a 5 isn't he better off doing the higher paper?

You can still get Grade 1, 2 or 3 on a higher paper.

If he isn't going to get higher than a 5 he may as well do the foundation paper.
What A Level subjects is he hoping to take?

Well he might do if he does some revision. He's planning to do French, Economics and Sociology.

They won’t have finished the specification yet. Maybe the teacher knows the remaining topics are harder, or believes based on teaching him that your DS won’t do well in them. That will mean he could get a lower mark(and therefore grade) in the actual exam, so foundation makes sense. It’s always better to have a grade than a U, even if it’s not a higher grade.
In addition, the way papers are structured (getting harder as you go) might mean your DS would do better on a foundation paper where he found the start easy and built his confidence - a higher paper would start with stuff he already finds tricky.

Edit: 3 isn’t a fail. It’s a lower grade pass. It won’t allow access to A level or be counted in number of higher grade passes for eg University applications, but it isn’t a fail.