The reforms Osborne made to stamp duty made it far more expensive for many in the south east to move as it caused taxes to rocket for anyone with property over about £925k. It doesn’t buy you anywhere near a mansion down south, I promise!
It’s just one piece of the puzzle.
Nearly anyone under 40 has been royally screwed on wages and housing costs. (I’m not a millennial but I feel for this age group). Wages have been stagnant for decades - possibly since Gordon Brown incentivised employers to pay crap as the state tops up a significant proportion of the working age population’s wages through recycling their own money back to them as tax credits.
Central banks in the West meanwhile have kept interest rates too low for too long, inflating ‘asset prices’ such as property.
That has meant that anyone after Gen X has paid too much of their after tax income on housing costs, stopping them from saving enough to go up the property ladder. Or from investing in other parts of the economy.
Now that some baby boomers are ready to downsize, they’re struggling to find a ready pool of buyers because younger folk are too broke and they don’t have the equity to upsize or even get on the ladder.
The bad news for baby boomers is that there is no wealthy pool of buyers waiting to lap up their assets.
Gen X - many of whom are too young to have benefited from final salary pensions but too old to have maximized auto enrolment - is already looking with trepidation at pissnpoor pension savings, rising uni costs for offspring, stamp duty and IHT and have missed the boat in many cases to trade up.
There is little electoral appetite for immigration - even to attract the wealthiest migrants - so I can’t see a way that house prices will continue rising when the wealthiest and numerically largest generation is passing through.