Applying for unis with lower grades than entry requirements

[Bufftailed]

First time supporting DC with this process.

Have seen UCAS pages and often quite big gap between requirements and most common. Eg Loughborough ECON: requires AAA, most common ABB. I know there are contextual, but lowest are BBC. So would it be worth DC applying with ABB or even BBB predictions? He is doing well regarded A levels if that makes much difference…Finding it all a bit confusing…

Thank you for any wisdom

The key is getting high enough predicted grades as he probably won't get an offer if he doesn't meet the requirement. Some universities still accept a grade or two lower at results day (but it obviously can't be guaranteed and some are known to rarely do this e.g. Durham/Oxbridge). So the PGs are really key in year 12 in order to get an offer. Also worth knowing that UCAS don't include the lowest and highest 5% in their figures. The BBC for Econ could in theory just be one student though and there may well be reasons for accepting them (e.g. illness/bereavement or similar during a-levels). It seems unusually low for Econ but I'm not an expert.

Thanks - helpful. The most common still seems low at ABB from AAA. One to ask at open day I guess. They won’t be going for the elite unis.

My DD had three A star grades in hand when she applied. She was rejected from two unis that had lower ‘typical offers’. It’s not just grades. It’s subject combination, PS, GCSE grades, that years applicant pool and so on. Isn’t the idea to apply to a couple aspirational two at PG level and then a safety?

Ouch. Presumably that was highest ranking unis with those grades. I assume there is more flexibility once you get below top 10 or so…

Yes to the 2 aspirational etc

I would ignore the lowest grade piece - they could have let one student in on that grade that had had a contextual offer with several elements its not a grade to aspire to.
The key piece is negotiating with school their predicated grades - when schools do mocks they don't expect students to get full grades as have not yet learnt all the material in the mocks and all schools come up with their predicated grades differently. Once a uni has made an offer on a predicated grade, many unis will have some leyway on results day if that grade has not been achieved. unis want bums on seats - I went to one open day talk where the uni said they would rather take a student who did not get predicated grades but they knew had been to open day and wanted to attend then a student with the grades but had maybe come through on clearing and never seen the uni.

Can I just add a student can apply for a uni with a requirement for higher than their predicted grades but uni usually writes back and says yes you can have place as long as you get the higher entry grade

Yes @Bufftailed as others say – if you apply using your PGs against the previously accepted grades – so, say, typical offer AstarAA, accepted low offer of ABB, your PGs are ABB… they uni will probably reject. If someone had PGs of AAA or Astar AA, got an offer, then gained lower grades, they might still be accepted (as a keen candidate already invested in the course, as a PP notes). But unis know that schools over-predict, so PGs below the usual offer might well be achieved grades that are even lower.

As an example I know a YP who applied (to Lboro actually) with PGs of ABC for an AAA course and did not get an offer. They were fine with it as they knew it was a punt, and were very happy somewhere else.

I suggest if you do do this, make it only one uni and then be more realistic for the others. Esp btw with a super popular subject like econ. I know a YP who applied for econ with stellar grades in hand and was rejected from all but one choice (admittedly the other four were very high ranking).

@Students2 I complained to a university about saying attending an open day mattered. If it’s not on the published admissions criteria, it’s not a selection criteria! DD asked something at interview and was told she would have known the answer if she had been to the open day. She felt discriminated against for not being able to go. Her boarding school had policies on school days away for open days and this uni open day also clashed with another one. She had viewed the on line virtual open day. She never got offered a place or rejected! She rejected them in early May. No uni should use open day attendance when selecting who is given an offer. As I pointed out to Brighton, some dc don’t have the funds to travel! A university cannot make decisions on who has the money to travel and give them special consideration in a tie-breaker. Tie breaker criteria must be published and adhered to.

I agree, apply to 2 stretch with predicted grades, 2 that should offer and 1 that definitely will. By stretch I mean dc will have the minimum tariff with predicted grades but the course might be popular so the uni might not offer. I would not expect to get an offer from this type of uni with ABB press tes for a AAA course. If the course asks for ABB, then it’s reasonable to expect an offer and the grades are set at more bums on seat level anyway. So more leeway on grades.

My ds didn't have the entry requirements, so he has just done a foundation year. Is that something he would consider?

Also check the % offer on UCAS - if the course at a particular uni has a 99% acceptance rate I’d assume they’re more likely to offer someone with predicted grades below the standard offer. If it has a 50% acceptance rate, not so likely.

If your DS's predicted grades match the "most common" grades for that course on UCAS I'd say it's worth a shot.

Further down on the same UCAS page it also shows offer rate and allows you to put your own grades in to see what proportion with those grades got a place in previous years, which might also help you decide.

Yes but a PP says that this information most likely relates to students who were predicted say AAA for an AAA course, but on results day, slipped a grade or two (say to ABB) but were still accepted.
Would they even have been offered a place with predicted grades of ABB?

Hi, OP -

As a former admissions tutor, sadly I think that the discrepancy you note primarily reflects over-optimism around PGs. PP are correct to say that these are key.

Around 80% now are inaccurate with the large majority too high. Guidance calls for saying what the candidate is capable of on a good day, but when 80% are wrong one wonders what the point is. Yet only those who apply can be admitted and so the large majority of degree programmes end up with entry requirements vs admissions profiles as you describe.

I think this grade profile means Loughborough is a stretch (I too would ignore the low tariff entry data). But DC has five choices, so if L is important to them it may be better to spend one there than always to be wondering ‘what if’.

Best wishes to DC.

You can't tell that from the published stats unfortunately. I still think it's worth a shot for one of your five choices, especially if the offer rate is high.

It's true that PGs may be inflated, but standard offers are often inflated too, especially for lower ranked universities. So it's all a bit of a guessing game!

Those will be through clearing I imagine

Loughborough was in clearing at ABB last year from memory.

If ABB are realistic predicted grades then probably worth a try.

Some of my sons friends got offers above their predicted grades. The issue was their predicted grades weren't realistic.

Unlikely to get in with anything lower than the clearing grade from last year and it might even be higher this year.

Thanks, yes I think he would if needed. Will have a better idea of how things are looking after these June mocks.

This is my feeling. Once you get slightly lower down the rankings required grades are inflated. Looks that way from ‘most common’ on UCAS

FY at a good university can be a great idea. These programmes can be much more demanding than A levels (though this depends on the programme) and provide an excellent transition to university.

Great post from @poetryandwine - agree @Bufftailed it’s worth finding out if Lboro would offer if that’s important to him. As per the YP I know. At least he asked and knew it was a no.

But yes the over prediction of PGs is an issue.

BTW Lboro is really not lower down in any rankings (apart from the obvs very highly ranked unis) if that’s what some are suggesting (they may be talking about other unis in which case fine).

Yeah. Seems a good shout. Although an expensive one

Ask at open day.

My DD was predicted lower grade in extremely competitive course and uni but in extremely relevant subjects. They said still apply as the strong grade in biology held weight. They were right and DD got through on an even lower grade overall.

Will depend on course and uni but do speak with them. Of course they may oversell it if they're keen to get applicants.

The grades are often the lowest they would accept most applying would have grades that far exceed what is required, so no point in putting lots of choices where they don’t even meet minimum standards. Economics is a degree that is over subscribed so they have no need to accept those that don’t meet grades.

I just meant lower ranked than the very top ones, where the most commonly held grades are generally equal to, or even higher than, the standard offer.

I think the offer rate and past grades information on the UCAS website is a very useful indication of how much leeway there may be in grades - but of course it's not guaranteed.

The UCAS pages suggests otherwise though. Southampton - entry requirements AAB, most common ABB.

Unless you mean ‘far exceed’ for predicted not actual…

But I suspect ranking of uni is a big factor. Warwick most common is higher than entry requirements. Obviously LSE, Cambridge etc. not looked at loads but reckon it flips once unis are a bit lower ranking/ non elite