Looking like an El Niño year.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Very briefly, more later!

Looks like its going to be an El Niño year this year. How is it going to affect our weather? Well, for the summer, the affect on Europe really isnt understood. It tends to get swamped by other factors. However it does seem to be associated with very cold winters.

So there you go, your first winter 2014-15 weather forecast

[captainmummy]

Not another cold winter! 3 in a row, then 1 wet, then cold again? I'm emigrating to spain.

[VivaLeBeaver]

Didnt the last El Niño summer have lots of rain?

[magimedi]

It's going to be a long hot summer.

I've said it before - I've ordered it!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Its true that in the last El Niño year (2009) had that extraordinarily wet July but ironically that was the year the Met office forecast the famous 'bbq summer' That following winter saw the most severe winter in 30 years.

I think that as its not really forecast to get into a proper El Niño until the summer, its not really going to influence our summer. It takes time for the effects to propogate world wide. Remember this is a phenomenon based around ocean circulation in the pacific.

[Meglet]

I had smashing sunflowers in Summer 09. Never had anything like it since.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

I can't even get my sunflower seeds to hatch this year :( I shall try harder just in case!

[digerd]

SE>
The first rainy dull, miserable day for ages today.
When I was into all the bother of seedsowing etc, I bought a heated propagating covered tray which sprouted practically overnight.
Never tried Sunflowers though.
Like the thought of yours hatching like birds and chicks and the cat on your head

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

[GloriaSmud]

Lol at the first 2014-2015 winter forecast

[ophiotaurus]

Maybe I'll get to use the sledge I bought last October this year then!
Really hope it's not a wet summer. We were very lucky last year.

[PollyCazaletWannabe]

Thank you OYBBK :) so what is the summer looking like this year please?

[PaulinesPen]

Um so is El Nino supposed to = good or bad summer?(generally speaking). I'm . If it's bad I won't bother emerging from hibernation.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Paulines, you will see claims that they lead to a hot dry summer, but I think the evidence is weak for that. Much more evidence on how it affects winters.

I actually have no idea how this summer will turn out

[MsBumble]

Last summer was lovely. I'm hoping for some warm weather this year so I can get out and about with my newborn and shed my excess baby fat.

[BuzzardBird]

Weather be predicted more than 5 days ahead.

[PaulinesPen]

Thanks Kitten Ooh I really hope it's long and hot this year though. And yes last year was so nice - we were lucky. I can put up with a rubbish winter better if I think a nice summer will follow. No more rain though, please no more endless rain. Gawd I thought we were going to have to build an ark at one point last winter. And when it rains constantly in the summer it seems doubly depressing especially in a blimmin tent.

[mankyscotslass]

Thanks Kitten.

Is it predicted to be a strong event?

[tak1ngchances]

Oh gawd. I am pregnant, due in October. I would like a cool dry summer and a mild dry winter!!

[PacificDogwood]

But, but, but… I was under the impression you made the weather , Kitten?

[PacificDogwood]

Waddaya mean you 'don't know what the weather is going to be like' this summer?!

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Manky, NOAA say they don't know how strong it will be yet. ENSO neutral for the rest of spring and then looking like it will become positive this summer or autumn.

[HesterShaw]

But, but, but… I was under the impression you made the weather shock, Kitten?

I thought that too Have you been misleading us? :o

Anyway, everyone says last summer was great. Actually that's not technically correct. July was great, and August was decent. The rest was the same old same old, and it was freezing until June. Then the long wet winter started at the end of September. However we had good autumn leaves.

I'm uneasy when I remember that good Marches and Aprils have turned into awful summers in the last few years.

However I know nothing.

[PacificDogwood]

Hester, you understand me.

And yy to last summer - the 3 weeks that we had nice weather here last July (Scotland) we spent on the Continent sweltering in 35+C heat. We left in rain and returned to rain.
No, I am Not Bitter

[BorisJohnsonsHairdresser]

Cold in winter you say, blow me.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well as its the opposite of last winter Boris....

For anyone who doesn't 'know' me any seasonal forecast I do is very tongue in cheek. I wouldnt attempt to forecast a month ahead, never mind 3 seasons away. It is however interesting to look at the trends that conditions like El Nino tend to produce and then observe what actually does happen.

We managed to miss much of the nice weather last summer by going to a country that was even colder and wetter than it normally is. A lot of hiking in fog, wind and rain!