Forecast for May Day weekend?

(79 Posts)
hillbilly Mon 22-Apr-13 13:27:10

OYBBK of course this is directed to you (and anyone else!).....we are hoping to camp in Buckinghamshire and I have everything crossed for dry weather. What's the chance of that?

well at the moment the models show the bastard weather has decided to treat us all with a plummet in temperatures at the weekend. Risk of frosts I'm afraid and much colder by day. On the plus side, at the moment it does look dry.

hillbilly Mon 22-Apr-13 14:39:35

Hmmmm. That's not great!

AmandinePoulain Mon 22-Apr-13 14:42:45

Noooo!!! <Stamps feet repeatedly!> It's not fair! We cancelled our camping trip at Easter in france because of the damn snow, and I've booked to camp near Chessington that weekend to enjoy my last weekend off before going back to work from maternity leave!

IT'S NOT FAIR

sad

hillbilly Mon 22-Apr-13 15:10:46

So that's for Bank holiday weekend OYBBK, not this weekend right?

oh hang on... you are right! sorry, thought the bank holiday was this weekend sad

digerd Tue 23-Apr-13 10:10:40

S.Herts

It was so warm in my back garden at 9am, I decided to wear a cotton t-shirt with a thin knitted bolero on top to walk little dog, where it is not so sheltered and avoided the sunny side.

I was fine - hurray. Supposed to be 22 tomorrow ? before winter returns at weekend. More cloud than blue sky developed now sad

digerd Tue 23-Apr-13 10:14:02

More blue sky and sunshine now. Must water my Camelia planted in the ground as seems to be struggling due to the long dry months since the snow.

fatsamsgrandslam Tue 23-Apr-13 16:41:20

So is there still a chance the May Bank Holiday weekend weather will be dry and warm? We've got my daughter's christening on the 5th and I'd very much like to request weather like today's please....wink

digerd Wed 24-Apr-13 17:45:42

Very warm and muggy atm,. It could at least rain in the night as pots now need watering and still not mended my hosepipe. Too tired to walk round with the watering can.

hillbilly Wed 24-Apr-13 18:50:14

So, any sign yet of what the Bank holiday weekend will be like?

johnworf Thu 25-Apr-13 17:58:58

We're camping in Warks end of May bank holiday (is that the same one the OP is asking about?) and would love to know if we're going to get at least dry weather.

Purlease say yes.

meglet Sat 27-Apr-13 19:22:41

We need it to be sunny next weekend. I'm being thrifty and staying at home, if it's sunny I can chuck the kids in the garden.

Sorry, lots of real life!

Just going to have a check.

It's looking pretty unsettled which means that details for any particular day are going to be pretty sketchy at the moment and the models reflect that with differing solutions.

According to GFS Saturday doesn't look too bad, a bit showery really but then on Sunday a rather irritating low pressure is shown to the south of the UK which would bring rain and showers spreading in from the south west through Sunday and Monday. Pretty warm in parts of central eastern areas though.

ECMWF has a low pressure dominating northern UK on Saturday which would bring widespread wet or wettish weather and much cooler than the GFS model. It keeps this through the Sunday with the low sinking south.

UKMO only goes up to Saturday but has the low even further north and so the southern half would probably be fine and quite nice.

So as you can see, pretty impossible to forecast currently!

leesmum Sun 28-Apr-13 18:53:59

Aww so you can't tell me what the weekend of the 11/12 may will be like? It's Ds1's first holy communion on the sun and I'm having everyone back to ours...would be nice to think we could all be outside boozing in the sun wink wine

sadly not leesmum, but bump me closer to the time. I hope you all have a lovely day!

leesmum Sun 28-Apr-13 19:39:03

Will do and I'm sure it will be a special day whatever the weather x

hillbilly Mon 29-Apr-13 14:48:04

Thanks OYBK, I'm on weather watch from now on and it's not looking too good!

digerd Mon 29-Apr-13 16:52:46

S.Herts.
Decent night temp last night @ +8, and lots of sun but the wind was annoyingly very cold this morning and still chilly this afternoon.

We have gorgeous frollicking lambs in the field behind me smile

fatsamsgrandslam Tue 30-Apr-13 07:13:27

Thanks OYBBK! You've confirmed my fears and I've booked the local village hall for our party rather that have it in our garden. Think it will be a bit too chilly.

hillbilly Tue 30-Apr-13 11:37:55

It's starting to look promising for the weekend in Bucks according to BBC and UK.weather. Dryish and around 15.....

digerd Tue 30-Apr-13 12:33:57

S.Herts

It is the wind chill factor, though, here. Not so cold as yesterday was,

GFS paints a happier picture today smile Not entirely dry, some showers for the northern half on Saturday and then some scattered showers for others on Sun/Mon. I think that if these happen they may get a little thundery in nature on Monday, but some warm temps especially for central england.

UKMO has it a bit more unsettled for the north on the saturday and not quite so warm overall.

ECMWF tends to keep the more settled and warmer weather to the SE and is the least positive of the three models.

Still, trending in the right direction!

Latest model runs....

GFS shows a gradient from the NW to the SE with the NW seeing the coolest dampest weather and the SE seeing the warmest driest weather (though not as warm as the models showed yesterday). Through the BHW it tends to dry up a bit more and warm up a bit more and Monday looks dry almost everywhere.

UKMO shows a similar picture.

ECMWF shows the low pressure to the north with more influence over the UK, pushing the pleasant weather further south.

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