Badkittens forecast for the coming week or so.

(382 Posts)

Ok.

Models I've looked at for this are GFS (incl ensembles, which I've chosen Oxfordshire as a base as its a goodish pick for central england) UKMO, ECMWF and NAE (for short term)

NAE (model goes to +48 hours)
Today shows snow in EA, north Wales and upwards at 18:00-00:00 it then thins the snow out to EA, nothern midlands (north England) and north east Scotland by morning through to the afternoon. It then shows precip petering out with just patches here and there. Worth noting how much it shows Northern Ireland getting by monday. Ice is going to be a massive problem for many over the next couple of days as max temps dont get above zero in many parts of England (away from the south and coastal areas) Wales and Scotland.

GFS: (model goes out to 9th April)
Shows a quieter picture next week in terms of precipitation (thank goodness as so many areas are beyond saturation). Signals are for precipitation to restart in earnest through the Easter weekend to about the 4th A fair bit of model agreement in the ensembles for this. Flooding quite possibly a problem again at Easter. Temps are cold throughout, perhaps a little warmer that the next few days but not looking like it will get beyond around 8C in the time period. Again ice will be a major short term problem for many.

UKMO (model goes out to 144 hours)
short term, EA has a lot of snow to come on this model tonight into tomorrow morning. It also shows a north-south precip divide with south of Lancashire(ish)/Yorkshire(ish) getting the precip tomorrow before it peters out. It then shows a relatively dry few days before thursday into Friday, where Good Friday may have difficult travel conditions. One to watch for sure!

ECMWF (model goes out to 240 hours)

similar to UKMO but then oh dear, on Good Friday a rather dodgy area of low pressure would bring the potential for widespread disruptive snow.

So, to summarise. All models in agreement for less precipitation after this weekend, but remaining cold. Ice a problem to start with and at night for many through the week. Towards the end of the week becoming unsettled again, with the chance for heavy rain or disruptive snow for Easter. No sign of Spring.

Oh that is hilarious, just had a look at the GFS precip modelling for the 15th. Although it is sticking with the lovely warm temps it has the entire country blanketed with heavy rain, sure that wasn't shown in the earlier run.

Stupid stupid model.

In the mean time, who's enjoying the yet more delightful snow we have down here in the south?

LillethTheCat Thu 04-Apr-13 14:32:42

So we're in for it to get warmer, but wet. No surprise there then.

thegriffon Thu 04-Apr-13 14:47:54

Would be happy with warmer but wet after today's freezing dog walk with wind and hail in my face.

Pascha Thu 04-Apr-13 15:09:55

sad The Wash is far too north for me. We have had non-stop flurries of snow/sleet/rain since mid morning in South Kent, only just brightening up now.

gnushoes Thu 04-Apr-13 15:59:51

OYBBK we have a week's holiday from this w/e somewhere in the UK-- we live on south coast -- where could we go where weather might not be too awful? Fed up with being cold, OK with some rain but preferably not continuous and torrential. I don't ask much do I?
thank you.

Eep, gnu, that's a scary thing you are asking me. I'd hate to be responsible for you having a pants holiday because I got it wrong.

It's likely that every where will have rain at times I'm afraid with the winds quite likely,to veer from the north through to the sw through the week so you can't even rely on rain shadows. Unfortunately GFS and ECMWF have very different positioning of low pressures mid week otherwise I'd give you a best guess with a strong caveat.

gnushoes Thu 04-Apr-13 17:54:10

Thank you anyway! I'd read bits which suggested it might be pants absolutely anywhere -- and I wouldn't hold it against you if you suggested somewhere that was torrential whereas I could have gone somewhere it was merely mizzling. At this rate Borrowdale could be a dry option...
Sigh. So fed up with cold feet.

ChippingInIsEggceptional Thu 04-Apr-13 18:01:55

I loved the snow today - just wish it had settled!! I was like grin in the car! I wish we'd get more snow!!

funkybuddah Thu 04-Apr-13 21:22:31

So OYBBK I hate to ask but this rain everywhere does that mean what Ive seen so far for Weymouth next week is correct?

A wet and windy holiday for me (in a fecking caravan )

Its always lovely when we go to Weymouth in April apart from 1 day last year.

I guess our run of amazingly warm and bright UK holidays had to come to an end sometime.

Chipping with the greatest respect, I think you are a little bonkers grin snow is for winter!

Funky, at times, but it shouldn't be the whole week.i don't think.
If I absolutely had to pick somewhere for next week, my choice would be round the Norfolk broads I reckon, although I'm not sure what there is to do there other than walking on the beach!

ChippingInIsEggceptional Thu 04-Apr-13 22:20:08

OYBBK shock

... but yes, I'm probably the only nutter hoping for more snow in spring grin (though I wish the daffs would hide themselves before they all get ruined sad )

I love snow smile I love the way it looks so pretty when it's falling then makes everything look clean, fresh & tidy until it melts and makes a god awful mess

funkybuddah Thu 04-Apr-13 22:39:38

Thank you OYBBK

ChippinIn I also thought all the snow today was pretty, I would rather snow than rain buuuuut I am over the cold, I want to enjoy autumn/winter if it ever rolls aorund again

MegBusset Thu 04-Apr-13 22:46:24

Ironically, I live right by the Norfolk Broads but am going to Hampshire for a week from tomorrow. D'oh!

TheDoctrineOfSnatch Thu 04-Apr-13 23:42:25

Sterling work OYBBK. Any thoughts on the Ipswich area for next week gratefully received.

Startail Thu 04-Apr-13 23:49:43

No spring in Malvern today or yesterday it's bitterly cold with a stuff icy breeze to make it even colder. To top it off we got snow flurries.
Some of the trees are trying half heartedly to flower and they look very sad and halfhearted as if they have changed their minds.

MegBusset Sat 06-Apr-13 15:55:19

Absolutely glorious in Hampshire today. Blue sky, sun shining and a balmy 12 degrees grin

Startail Sat 06-Apr-13 23:48:09

Yes lovely here today, just in time for the DDs to go back to school.

digerd Sun 07-Apr-13 07:41:07

S.Herts

What??!! -3 in the night, frost on the grass, when yesterday was milder and thought Spring had arrived at last.
At least it's sunny. Daffs were about to burst into flower yesterday and camelia at last braved the weather and began to flower.
Hope the frost hasn't damaged the blooms/part open buds < not been out yet>

It's been gorgeous in places hasn't it smile make the most of it, all change Tuesday to April showers, heavy on the wet.

johnworf Sun 07-Apr-13 12:44:02

OYBBK do you think the rain might be in for the rest of April or is it a fleeting visit?

It does look like its going to hang around until towards the end of April at the very least (at which point my crystal ball runs out grin but I'm hopefully that there will be nice days dotted here and there.

I've taken the opportunity to put down nematodes against slugs today. I think that with the upcoming more seasonal temps and rain there might be a bit of a slug explosion! (Yuk at the unfortunate image that bought to mind)

digerd Sun 07-Apr-13 20:58:09

S.Herts
Turned into a very nice day. But after gardening, walking dog 3 times, and housework on my knees, I'm all in and aching all over.

My first Camelia flower that had been waiting so long to fully open had dropped off today, < sad face> That was the one I put a glove over to save it from the frosts.

digerd Sun 07-Apr-13 21:02:12

ps.
Now waiting for a rainy day to fertilize my 8 climbing roses on the day before. Should I do it Monday?

digerd Mon 08-Apr-13 09:29:44

S.Herts
Hazy sun so far , but nights still just above freezing.
Weather forecast says 10 degrees top today, and rain late evening.

So roses fertilizing today. Always done it in March, so late this year.

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