Hello All. I thought I'd add to the debate about selection v comprehensives by looking at some statistics. Basically I worked out the average GCSE grade attained by Higher and Middle ability [ Level 5 and Level 4 KS2 Sats] children in four LEAS.
Some information : Buckinghamshire and Oxfordshire are next to each other and are reasonably similar - one is fully selective (Bucks) the other comprehensive. Please note: Bucks county does not include Milton Keynes area as this is run by a different authority. Kent and Hampshire are similar sized authorities -Kent selective, Hampshire comp.
I gave a point score for each grade achieved (1 - 16) and then worked out the average.
Anyway the results:
Higher: Bucks Grammar Average Grade 16.77 equivalent to A
Secondary Modern 13.92 " B
Overall Average 14.80 " B+
Oxon Average 14.45 " B/B+
Kent Grammar 15.5 " B+/A- Secondary Mod 11.8 " C+
Overall Average 13.65 " B
Hampshire Average 13.73 " B
Middle: Bucks Grammar Average 13.92 " B
Secondary Modern 9.8 " C-
Overall average 11.86 " C+
Oxon Average 10.14 " C-
Kent Grammar 13.1 " B- Secondary Mod 8.8 " D+
Overall 10.95 " C
Hampshire 9.45 " D+/C-
Conclusions:
Overall, outcomes for all groups seem from this to be pretty much the same in both systems. There's no overwhelming case for returning to selection nationwide nor for abolishing selection where it still exists. There do seem to be some intersting points to be made
- I was very surprised at the difference in achievement between those entering grammar school with Level 5 and those with Level 4. I would have expected that gap to have almost disappeared after five years of the same grammar school education. In face, those going to Secondary Modern with a Level 5 do just as well as those going into Grammar with a Level 4 in Bucks which may be very encouraging for those who just miss the 11+.
2.None of this takes into account wide differences in individual schools. But it does show that whichever county you live in the worst predictions of those committed to selection or comprehensives aren't justified. Your bright child isn't condemned to underachieving their potential (lots of comps have a level 5 average of B+ or A- equivalent to many grammar schools)and a secondary modern doesn't necessarily mean the end of academic ambition (many are getting B or B+ averages for their Level 5s)
Hope this all makes sense!! There was a lot of information to try and present clearly. Any questions welcome but I only have limited access to a PC so you may have to wait a bit for and answer! Thanks for listening